For example, if the speed of thought could be increased a million-fold, a subjective year would pass in 30 physical seconds. Computer scientist and futurist Hans Moravec proposed in a book  that the exponential growth curve could be extended back through earlier computing technologies prior to the integrated circuit. Evidence for this decline is that the rise in computer clock rates is slowing, even while Moore's prediction of exponentially increasing circuit density continues to hold. Eric Drexler , one of the founders of nanotechnology , postulated cell repair devices, including ones operating within cells and utilizing as yet hypothetical biological machines , in his book Engines of Creation. These threats are major issues for both singularity advocates and critics, and were the subject of Bill Joy 's Wired magazine article " Why the future doesn't need us ". If you structure a society on not emphasizing individual human agency, it's the same thing operationally as denying people clout, dignity, and self-determination Accelerating change According to Kurzweil, his logarithmic graph of 15 lists of paradigm shifts for key historic events shows an exponential trend Some singularity proponents argue its inevitability through extrapolation of past trends, especially those pertaining to shortening gaps between improvements to technology. For example, we could mistakenly elevate a subgoal to the status of a supergoal.
Artificial intelligence in fiction In February , under the auspices of the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence AAAI , Eric Horvitz chaired a meeting of leading computer scientists, artificial intelligence researchers and roboticists at Asilomar in Pacific Grove, California. The means speculated to produce intelligence augmentation are numerous, and include bioengineering , genetic engineering , nootropic drugs, AI assistants, direct brain—computer interfaces and mind uploading. Vinge's article "The Coming Technological Singularity: In the current stage of life's evolution, the carbon-based biosphere has generated a cognitive system humans capable of creating technology that will result in a comparable evolutionary transition. To write a story set more than a century hence, one needs a nuclear war in between John von Neumann, Vernor Vinge and Ray Kurzweil define the concept in terms of the technological creation of super intelligence. The number of patents per thousand peaked in the period from to , and has been declining since. Finally the laws of physics will eventually prevent any further improvements. He calls this a "semihard takeoff". Non-AI singularity[ edit ] Some writers use "the singularity" in a broader way to refer to any radical changes in our society brought about by new technologies such as molecular nanotechnology ,    although Vinge and other writers specifically state that without superintelligence, such changes would not qualify as a true singularity. These improvements would make further improvements possible, which would make further improvements possible, and so on. The term was popularized by science fiction writer Vernor Vinge, who argues that artificial intelligence, human biological enhancement, or brain-computer interfaces could be possible causes of the singularity. There is not the slightest reason to believe in a coming singularity. More also argues that a superintelligence would not transform the world overnight, because a superintelligence would need to engage with existing, slow human systems to accomplish physical impacts on the world. Jaron Lanier refutes the idea that the Singularity is inevitable. The Economist mocked the concept with a graph extrapolating that the number of blades on a razor, which has increased over the years from one to as many as five, will increase ever-faster to infinity. Despite the numerous speculated means for amplifying human intelligence, non-human artificial intelligence specifically seed AI is the most popular option for organizations[ which? Contrariwise, as the intelligences become more advanced, further advances will become more and more complicated, possibly overcoming the advantage of increased intelligence. Look at domed cities, jet-pack commuting, underwater cities, mile-high buildings, and nuclear-powered automobiles—all staples of futuristic fantasies when I was a child that have never arrived. We tell it to solve a mathematical problem, and it complies by turning all the matter in the solar system into a giant calculating device, in the process killing the person who asked the question. Some argue that advances in artificial intelligence AI will probably result in general reasoning systems that lack human cognitive limitations. He predicts that the exponential growth will continue, and that in a few decades the computing power of all computers will exceed that of "unenhanced" human brains, with superhuman artificial intelligence appearing around the same time. This analogy suggests that modern computer hardware is within a few orders of magnitude of being as powerful as the human brain. Others believe that humans will evolve or directly modify their biology so as to achieve radically greater intelligence. As an analogy, imagine we had a computer that could design new computers chips, systems, and software faster than itself. Shortly after, the human era will be ended.
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